NIL is coming...
The wall has fallen, and college football powerhouses have barely noticed. Should we be surprised that a group of men so narrow minded in their exploitation and exhortation of their non-wage slaves has spared nary a thought for the implications of this?
You could see it in the recent debate of the college football expansion. With Alabama/SEC#2/OhioState always occupying 2-3 slots of the four, what was the point of expansion? The power is concentrated in about 3-4 football schools these days. Well of course that is the pro-Alabama stance, a fine reflection of modern america's economy: control the narrative, allow no competition.
You could see it in the recent debate of the college football expansion. With Alabama/SEC#2/OhioState always occupying 2-3 slots of the four, what was the point of expansion? The power is concentrated in about 3-4 football schools these days. Well of course that is the pro-Alabama stance, a fine reflection of modern america's economy: control the narrative, allow no competition.
Of course that concentration seemed to worsen with the current four team format. If you're a recruit at the five star tier, do you go to Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Michigan, Wisconsin, any PAC-10 school, any ACC school besides Clemson, or do you go to Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, or Georgia if you want to get on national television?
Playoff expansion undermines this pseudo-monopoly that has already formed, but the NIL storm is coming, and it is like an army of the undead. Who will be overrun by this (non-HBO-nerfed) undead horde?
Here's a simple one: College coach salaries. If all of a sudden a program has the choice of funneling 5 million dollars to NIL sponsors to attract talent or pay a coach 5 million dollars and hope talent comes because they like your fuzzy obscure-species-nickname mascot, what do you think they'll do?
Right now, college coaches are the stars of college football. And god are they boring and horrible. Players gain some notoriety, but they are gone too quickly. That's going to change.
Here's the next NIL storm. Let's say you are a college that actively develops NIL pay from regional businesses and local fans to attract athletes above and beyond what money your alumni and supporters produce.
College #1 is in a town of 99,500. Let's call it "Tuscaloosa".
College #2 is near a city and suburbs of 5-6 million people, and is an economic center with far more money per person and large multinational businesses to sponsor athletes... Let's call it "Atlanta".
One could argue that Alabama gets to draw on the rest of the state for support ... but so does Georgia, and Georgia is a state with a much better economy (almost 3x bigger). But it is inarguable that an economic power advantage is going to shift. Alabama's lone advantage will likely be the lack of pro franchises.
Now consider Notre Dame. They are close (enough) to Chicago and Indianapolis, in addition to their (fading) national profile.
Ok. Now consider USC and Los Angeles. California's GDP is FIFTEEN TIMES bigger than Alabama's.
The weird jump ball is New York City, always kind of has been for college football. Maybe Rutgers in talent-rich New Jersey and Pennsylvania? Syracuse is too far north.
NIL will have an additional effect. Many athletes at the third round or down will defer going to the draft, especially if they can patch together six figure income. Especially if their income builds with name recognition each year, and their junior and senior years are their highest earning.
Play on the field may change. Boring, conservative coaches might start pulling their hair out because people go for big plays constantly, against coaches. Celebrations will get flashier. Haircuts will get colorful. Sideline interviews will have product placement. Players get to put their own advertising on their jerseys? I bet it is coming.
A downside will be all those college TV networks will start getting far more important. It gets the athletes on TV to a large audience. It will give interviews and exposure to athletes.
This will deepen the talent in college football. And distribute it, because if you want to make money on NIL, you need to start early, play early, get on the field, and get a name. Do you go to Alabama and sit for 1-2 years? Um, no.
I believe NIL will cause the NCAA to extend the eligibility. I'm guessing they will baby step to five year eligibility (the notion of the redshirt senior is already well established), and very lax rules for injury eligibility. Why? It will improve the product on the field and the value to the players, particularly in college basketball, but that's a different article.
NCAA revenue will expand greatly. Teams will be better. The winners will be the athletes. The losers will be established monopoly programs like Alabama and Ohio State. The winners will be schools closer to larger markets.
Smart schools will start setting up drop-in NIL for their top recruits. Easy first step is as a "legal" substitute for the old shadow alumni money and the old "hire the parents into a college job" that used to make NCAA recruiting tick. Now that (and money that formerly went to administrators and coaches in the athletic department) will flow to recruits as signing bonus deals that are thinly disguised NIL. A smart athletic department will have corporate sponsors, and a host of local small businessmen that will sponsor athletes. Social media will unfortunately become a lot more important. Smart coaches will start plugging and featuring their players far more.
One of the NIL streams will be a classic social media star stream: appearance fees at nightclubs and other hotspots. This is where large markets will dwarf smaller college towns in NIL revenue potential. And will lead to a lot of drama and conflict and suspensions, but as they say, there is no bad publicity.
Here's an interesting thing too. NIL may encourage multiple sport athletes. Guess what most top-level NCAA football athletes are good at besides football? Well, track, baseball, basketball, and a host of other sports. That is, at a minimum, more TV exposure, may raise the profile of other NCAA sports as a network effect.
Other NCAA Olympic sports, long problematic in their funding, may actually get a boost in NIL. These sports will be loaded with athletes highly motivated to make publicity and NIL money in any way possible. Those athletes will boost the profiles of their sports over the long run, and help bridge the attention gap between the Olympic games and the four years between.
Playoff expansion undermines this pseudo-monopoly that has already formed, but the NIL storm is coming, and it is like an army of the undead. Who will be overrun by this (non-HBO-nerfed) undead horde?
Here's a simple one: College coach salaries. If all of a sudden a program has the choice of funneling 5 million dollars to NIL sponsors to attract talent or pay a coach 5 million dollars and hope talent comes because they like your fuzzy obscure-species-nickname mascot, what do you think they'll do?
Right now, college coaches are the stars of college football. And god are they boring and horrible. Players gain some notoriety, but they are gone too quickly. That's going to change.
Here's the next NIL storm. Let's say you are a college that actively develops NIL pay from regional businesses and local fans to attract athletes above and beyond what money your alumni and supporters produce.
College #1 is in a town of 99,500. Let's call it "Tuscaloosa".
College #2 is near a city and suburbs of 5-6 million people, and is an economic center with far more money per person and large multinational businesses to sponsor athletes... Let's call it "Atlanta".
One could argue that Alabama gets to draw on the rest of the state for support ... but so does Georgia, and Georgia is a state with a much better economy (almost 3x bigger). But it is inarguable that an economic power advantage is going to shift. Alabama's lone advantage will likely be the lack of pro franchises.
Now consider Notre Dame. They are close (enough) to Chicago and Indianapolis, in addition to their (fading) national profile.
Ok. Now consider USC and Los Angeles. California's GDP is FIFTEEN TIMES bigger than Alabama's.
The weird jump ball is New York City, always kind of has been for college football. Maybe Rutgers in talent-rich New Jersey and Pennsylvania? Syracuse is too far north.
NIL will have an additional effect. Many athletes at the third round or down will defer going to the draft, especially if they can patch together six figure income. Especially if their income builds with name recognition each year, and their junior and senior years are their highest earning.
Play on the field may change. Boring, conservative coaches might start pulling their hair out because people go for big plays constantly, against coaches. Celebrations will get flashier. Haircuts will get colorful. Sideline interviews will have product placement. Players get to put their own advertising on their jerseys? I bet it is coming.
A downside will be all those college TV networks will start getting far more important. It gets the athletes on TV to a large audience. It will give interviews and exposure to athletes.
This will deepen the talent in college football. And distribute it, because if you want to make money on NIL, you need to start early, play early, get on the field, and get a name. Do you go to Alabama and sit for 1-2 years? Um, no.
I believe NIL will cause the NCAA to extend the eligibility. I'm guessing they will baby step to five year eligibility (the notion of the redshirt senior is already well established), and very lax rules for injury eligibility. Why? It will improve the product on the field and the value to the players, particularly in college basketball, but that's a different article.
NCAA revenue will expand greatly. Teams will be better. The winners will be the athletes. The losers will be established monopoly programs like Alabama and Ohio State. The winners will be schools closer to larger markets.
Smart schools will start setting up drop-in NIL for their top recruits. Easy first step is as a "legal" substitute for the old shadow alumni money and the old "hire the parents into a college job" that used to make NCAA recruiting tick. Now that (and money that formerly went to administrators and coaches in the athletic department) will flow to recruits as signing bonus deals that are thinly disguised NIL. A smart athletic department will have corporate sponsors, and a host of local small businessmen that will sponsor athletes. Social media will unfortunately become a lot more important. Smart coaches will start plugging and featuring their players far more.
One of the NIL streams will be a classic social media star stream: appearance fees at nightclubs and other hotspots. This is where large markets will dwarf smaller college towns in NIL revenue potential. And will lead to a lot of drama and conflict and suspensions, but as they say, there is no bad publicity.
Here's an interesting thing too. NIL may encourage multiple sport athletes. Guess what most top-level NCAA football athletes are good at besides football? Well, track, baseball, basketball, and a host of other sports. That is, at a minimum, more TV exposure, may raise the profile of other NCAA sports as a network effect.
Other NCAA Olympic sports, long problematic in their funding, may actually get a boost in NIL. These sports will be loaded with athletes highly motivated to make publicity and NIL money in any way possible. Those athletes will boost the profiles of their sports over the long run, and help bridge the attention gap between the Olympic games and the four years between.
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